GRE作文范文 Issue-30

"It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data."

嘉文博译Sample Essay

It is a rare situation where one is faced with a dilemma without the benefit of having at least some information about that particular state of affairs. Seldom does something pop up out of nowhere for which there is absolutely no data available. However, when a situation occurs where there is no information immediately available, hypothesizing about a theoretical explanation for that set of circumstances can certainly lay the groundwork for an understanding of what has happened.

To theorize means to form a theory about something or to speculate about a set of circumstances. Merriam Webster's dictionary defines a theory in part as "a hypothesis assumed for the sake of argument or investigation; [or] an unproved assumption." People automatically make assumptions about a situation based on prior experience with a set of circumstances or a particular set of facts. It is the normal decision and thought-making process that human beings go through in trying to decipher the world around them. If an individual were not allowed to make an assumption about a situation, the individual would be lacking an essential human element in the process of interpreting that particular situation. Theorizing about a possible explanation can eliminate implausible solutions as well as generate a range of possibilities for what has occurred.

Additionally, the human ability to think in a logical manner to rationally explain an event or series of events is one important characteristic that separates us from animals. This ability stems from being not only able to remember past facts and events, but to actually apply those memories to future situations. The ability to learn from the past is a fundamental part of building knowledge, which allows us to advance as a civilization. If one accepts the idea that it is a grave mistake to hypothesize in cases where there is a lack of data, one of the most essential tools of learning would be taken away from us.

For example, consider the situation where a human skeleton is found with absolutely no clues as to what happened to this particular person. If the investigative team is not allowed to hypothesize or make an assumption about the circumstances under which the person died, they could not make a decision on how to even begin their investigation. Should they proceed with the investigation as a homicide or a death of natural causes? With no data available, the investigators must theorize as to a cause of death and thus proceed with the inquiry on that basis alone. Without a hypothesis, there is no guide or "roadmap" as to how to proceed, and the investigators work would be greatly hampered.

As another example, consider the situation faced in the beginning by scientists researching cancer. At first, scientists and doctors knew only that people were dying slowly from some cause, but the cause itself was unknown. Researchers were faced with almost no data other than the fact that people were dying. Hypothesizing about the situation led doctors to look inside the body for the cause. Further hypotheses have led to the state of cancer research today, and obviously, much work remains to be done as no cure has been found as yet. It may be likely that a cure for some types of cancer may come from pure speculation based on a theory rather than on any hard evidence or data.

It goes without saying that it is a rare situation where there is no data available to form a hypothesis on which to proceed. But even in situations where there is only a small amount of data available, a hypothesis can be an invaluable director toward the truth.

参考译文

在尚未掌握数据资料的情况下就进行理论阐述，这是一种极为严重的错误

　　人们面对某一困境，但对这一事态没能掌握最起码的信息线索，这一情境是极为罕见的。某事无缘无故地冒出来且无根可寻，没有一点信息线索，这种事情一般是很少存在的。但是，当出现一个事态且没有直接的信息时，为那一系列情状假设某种理论上的解释无疑会为我们了解所发生的事情的真相打下基础。 进行理论说明，指的是对某事物形成一个理论或对一系列事实进行理论判断。Merriam Webster词典对"理论"的定义是这样的："为了论证或研究所做的假说；（或）尚未证实的假设。"人们自然地根据以前对一系列情况或事实的经验对一种情况进行假设。人们在试图破解他们周围的世界时肯定要经过正常的判断和思想过程。倘若我们不允许对某一事态做一假设，那么我们在解释那一事态的过程中就会缺少最基本的人类因素。对一个可能的解释做假设，不但可以消除不合情理的解释，还会为所发生的事情导出一系列的可能性。

　　此外，人类用逻辑的方法进行思考来合理地解释一个事件或一系列事件的能力，是区分人类与动物的重要特征。这种能力源自人类不仅能够记忆过去的事实和事件，而且还能把那些记忆的东西应用于未来的情况。从过去学到有用东西的能力，是构建知识的基本因素，而构建知识使得我们能够作为文明人取得进步。如果我们认为在缺少信息资料时进行理论假设是一个极为严重的错误，那么我们最基本的学习方法之一就会被剥夺。

　　例如，设想发现了一具人的骨骼，但没有任何线索表明该人发生了什么。如果调查小组不被允许假定或假设该人死时的情景，那么他们就不可能做出决定如何开始他们的调查。他们是从凶杀还是从自然死亡着手调查呢？尽管没有信息线索可寻，调查人员必须假设一个死因，在此基础上展开调查。如果没有假设，那就没有进行调查的导向或"路线图"，因而调查人员的工作也必将严重受阻。

　　再例，设想研究癌症的科学家在最初时所面对的境况。首先，科学家和医生仅仅知道这人正因为某种原因慢慢死去，但真正原因是什么却一无所知。研究人员除了知道那人正在死去之外几乎没有任何信息线索。对原因的假设使医生检查病人身体的内脏以寻找原因。进一步的假设已导致了今天的癌症研究，而且显然，因为还没有找到治疗的方法，所以今后还需要做很多工作。很有可能，一种治疗某些癌症的方法出自以某种理论为根据的假设，而不是出自确凿的证据或事实。

不言自明，没有任何信息线索可让我们形成一个假设并由此着手工作，这种情况是很少见的。但是，即使在只有极少量信息线索的情况下，一个假设可能就是通往真理的宝贵向导。

 

GRE作文范文 Argument-30

"Over the past few years, the number of people who have purchased advance tickets for the Glenville Summer Concert series has declined, indicating lack of community support. Although the weather has been unpredictable in the past few years, this cannot be the reason for the decline in advance ticket purchases, because many people attended the concerts even in bad weather. Clearly, then, the reason for the decline is the choice of music, so the organizers of the concert should feature more modern music in the future and should be sure to include music composed by Richerts, whose recordings Glenville residents purchase more often than any other contemporary recordings. This strategy will undoubtedly increase advance ticket purchases and will increase attendance at the concerts."

嘉文博译Sample Essay

This argument addresses the problem of a declining number of people purchasing advance tickets for the Glenville Summer Concert series, which the arguer states indicates a lack of community support. The arguer states that bad weather cannot be the reason for the decline because even though the weather had been unpredictable over the past few years, people attended the concerts even in poor weather. The arguer then concludes that the problem must lie with the choice of music, and that more modern music as well as recordings by Richerts, whose recordings are purchased more often by Glenville residents than any other contemporary recordings, should be included to increase advance ticket sales and increase attendance. This argument is unconvincing because the arguer reaches the conclusion based on faulty logic.

In the first place, the writer of the letter states that the decrease in the number of people who purchase advance tickets for the event indicates a lack of community support. A simple decline in advance ticket sales does not necessarily indicate a lack of community support; it may just be that there is no benefit to buying the tickets in advance. It is possible that more people will continue to attend the concert than ever before by buying tickets at the gate rather than in advance. There may be other reasons instead of a lack of community support for the decline in advance ticket sales. For example, in the past there may have been a discount given for buying the tickets in advance. Perhaps in the past there was a "rain-out" provision where advance ticket holders could get a refund if the weather was bad. The dropping of these advance ticket benefits would explain the decline in the number of people buying them. If there is no benefit to buying advance tickets, there is no reason for the community to buy the tickets early. The arguer fails to take these possibilities into account, thus weakening his or her argument.

Furthermore, the writer states that although the weather has been unpredictable in the past few years, this cannot be the reason for declining advance ticket sales because people still attended even in bad weather. Those that attended in bad weather probably only had two choices: attend the concert and suffer through the weather or stay at home, thus wasting the money that was spent on the tickets. Once they attended in the concert in bad weather and had a terrible time, it is likely that they decided that it was not worth it to buy tickets in advance and therefore decided to wait until the day of the show to purchase them in the future. Additionally, it does not follow that the decline is due to the choice of music at the concerts - there is no evidence presented that modern music would attract more advance or regular ticket purchasers or that Richerts' compositions would get more people to buy tickets in advance or attend the concerts. Simply because Glenville residents buy more Richerts recordings than any other contemporary recordings does not mean that they would like to see them performed at the Glenville Summer concert series; in fact, there may be more out-of-town residents that usually attend the concerts than Glenville residents. Again, the writer fails to address these factors in his or her argument.

In summary, the letter writer reaches his or her conclusions based on poorly interpreted information. Without providing direct evidence that the music included is to blame for the decline in advance ticket sales and that changing the music would increase those sales as well as overall attendance, the writer's argument ultimately fails to deliver on its premise.

参考译文
下述文字摘自一封致某地方报纸《格兰维尔报》编辑的信函：

　　"在过去的几年里，预购格兰维尔夏季系列音乐会门票的人数有所下跌，这说明社区的支持力度不够。尽管在过去的几年里天气变化出人意料，但是这并不是预购门票下跌的原因，因为许多人甚至在坏天气时照样去听音乐会。显然，下跌的原因在于对音乐的选择，所以音乐会的组织者在未来应该演奏更多的现代音乐，应该保证演奏里查兹谱写的乐曲，因为比起任何其他当代作曲家的唱片，格兰维尔的居民更经常地购买他的唱片。这一策略将保证增加门票的预购数，并将增加听音乐会的人数。"

　　这一论证陈述道，格兰维尔夏季系列音乐会预购门票的人数下降，论证者认为这表明社区的支持力度不够。论证者声称，坏天气不可能是人数下降的原因，因为尽管在过去的几年里天气变化出人意料，但是人们在出现坏天气时照样去听音乐会。论证者接着得出结论：问题在于对音乐的选择，应该演奏更为现代的音乐以及里查兹谱写的乐曲，因为格兰维尔的居民购买他的唱片比购买任何其他当代作曲家的唱片更为频繁，这样便能增加门票的预购数以及听音乐会的人数。这一论证缺乏说服力，因为论证者所得出的结论是基于错误的逻辑。

　　 首先，信函作者声称预购音乐会门票的人数下跌表明社区的支持力度不够。单凭预购门票的下降，并不能完全说明社区的支持力度不够。很可能是因为预购门票没有什么益处。也可能与以往任何时候相比，更多的人会随时在售票处购票而不是预购门票来继续听音乐会。可能存在其他原因导致预购门票下降，而不是因为社区的支持力度不够。例如，过去，可能预购门票可以获得打折。或许过去有"遇雨取消"的规定，如果天气不好预售票持有者可以退票。这样的预售门票裨益的取消，可以解释预购门票人数下降的原因。倘若预购门票没有益处，也就没有理由让社区居民提前购票了。论证者没有把这些因素考虑在内，因此削弱了他/她的论证。

　　再者，信函作者说道，尽管在过去的几年中天气变幻无常，但这不能构成预售票下降的原因，因为人们在遇到坏天气时照样去听音乐会。那些在坏天气去听音乐会的人可能只有两个选择：去听音乐会并忍受坏天气，或者呆在家里并浪费门票钱。一旦他们在坏天气去听音乐会而且过得很不愉快，他们很可能会认为不值得提前买票，从而决定在将来要等到演出那天才去买票。此外，说预购门票数量的下降是由于音乐会对音乐的选择所造成的，这也没有道理--没有证据表明现代音乐会吸引更多的预购门票和普通门票的购买，或者说里查兹的曲目会让更多的人预购门票和听音乐会。只是因为格兰维尔居民购买里查兹的唱片比购买其他当代唱片多，并不能意味着他们喜欢看到他的这些音乐在格兰维尔夏季系列音乐会上被演出。实际上，经常性听音乐会的城外居民可能要比格兰维尔的居民来得多。信函作者又没能在其论证中探讨这些因素。 总之，信函作者只是凭借没有经过恰当解释的信息得出其结论。因为没有提供直接的证据证明音乐会所选择的曲目是预售票下降的原因，以及改变音乐会的曲目会增加预售票和听音乐会的人数，信函作者的论证最终无法自圆其说。

嘉文博译郑重声明：